New gTLD are aging well

A few weeks ago, we were all very excited to see the renewal rate of the new gTLD.  Some were predicting a brutal fall down of the registrations, that no one would renew.. Some were predicting the opposite.

Some new gTLD are now 1 year and 2 months old, and a significant number of them are over 1 year old. In order to understand better is there was a brutal decline in registrations after one year life time, we did the following scientific calculation – with some assumptions
Let’s calculate on one side, the average daily growth of the new gTLD over the last month – from March 7 to April 7
On the other side, let’s calculate the average daily growth, assuming that growth only comes in General Availability ( which is mainly correct for the standard new gTLD ) – so we have :
total number of domains / age in days.
If we look at the growth in the last month, divided by the growth over the whole period, this ratio tells us :
if it is below 1, the growth is faster at the start – which, from the classic growth curve, is nearly always the case.
The smaller the figure, the more the speed decreases.
Now we plotted that ratio, compared to the age of the TLD, and we saw that globally the last month between 20 and 60% of the average growth, but there is no strong time dependency. So from this analysis, we believe that new gTLD do age quite well.
Looking at some popular TLD, it is true that there are some outstanding values –
.guru only gained 47 domains in the last month, while it has a total of 83’000 domains.
.berlin only gained 445 domains in the last month, while it has a total of 156’000 domains
but
. club gained 15’300 domains last month, over a total of 200’000 domains approx.